Understanding Public Health Dynamics in the Face of Uncertainty and the Unknown - Briefing Note N°2

Based on current knowledge, the only way to completely avoid death from COVID-19 is by implementing non- medical measures to stop the virus from spreading. Absolute protection depends on the adoption of appropriate preventative behavior, but ensuring that people adopt such behavior is beyond the role of the medical sector. As the virus has a very high transmission capacity, and a large proportion of carriers are pre- symptomatic or asymptomatic, everybody needs to be considered a potential transmitter of the disease. As a result, prevention is the only way to really protect ourselves from the virus. Different societies need to decide what prevention measures are the most appropriate, based on what is socially realistic, economically viable, susceptible to be put in place rapidly and applicable to the vast majority of the population. As such, community-based organizations have an important role to play in promoting preventative behavior.

This briefing note discusses how clearer communication about our complete dependence on a few well-selected prevention measures will help to protect economies and people’s health, even for those located ‘deep in the bush’. This change in behavior is the best investment we can make, especially for the most vulnerable population groups. We will continue to reap the benefits even after a vaccine has been found, due to the risks of the virus mutating and the existence of other airborne diseases