COVID-19, Governance, and Conflict: Emerging Impacts and Future Evidence Needs

This paper reviews emerging evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on governance and conflict, using a “governance and conflict first” approach in contrast to other research and synthesis on COVID-19 in the social sciences that tends to be structured through a public health lens. It largely focuses on evidence on low- and middle-income countries but also includes a number of examples from high-income countries, reflecting the global nature of the crisis. It is organised around four cross-cutting themes that have enabled the identification of emerging bodies of evidence and/or analysis: Power and legitimacy; Effectiveness, capacity, and corruption; Violence, unrest, and conflict; and Resilience, vulnerability, and risk. The paper concludes with three over-arching insights that have emerged from the research: (1) the importance of leadership; (2) resilience and what “fixing the cracks” really means; and (3) why better ways are needed to add up all the “noise” when it comes to COVID-19 and evidence.

This report was prepared for the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and its partners in support of pro-poor programmes